Reflections, Observations, and Analyses Pertaining to the Canadian Political Scene
"A presidency that is starting to come apart," Lorne.
The pieces, one hopes, will soon be scattered to the four winds, Owen.
For my money, Gergen is about the least partisan pundit of them all. As a fellow "lapsed lawyer" I'm perhaps eager to agree with Gergen's take on impeachment. Here we are, barely halfway through May, still short of four months since the inauguration, and so many, from congressmen to legal experts to pundits are backing the impeachment option. That's mind-boggling. Now the Justice Department, with an enormous amount of pushing from Congressional Republicans, has relented and appointed Robert Mueller special counsel. I think this is looking very grim for Trump whose psyche is not at all cut out for this sort of thing. I suspect some of what he's done was inadvertence. He didn't know any better but it's obvious he's made next to no effort to inform himself of governance and the legal aspects of presidency. In these circumstances ignorance of the law is definitely no defence.With his age and psychological impairment will he have the stamina for a protracted fight against impeachment? Can he at this point muster the disciplined caution that has so consistently eluded him since his inauguration?My guess is that he'll crater and Pence will spare him an impeachment by invoking the 25th amendment to remove Trump for general unfitness. A quick pardon, a la Ford/Nixon, and Trump can recede into obscurity. He'll still be disgraced but that's a load better for a 70-year old than a stretch in the pen for obstruction, witness tampering, etc.
It is interesting you should mention the 25th amendment, Mound. I had coffee today with an old colleague who asked me if I thought that would happen, and I had to admit to my ignorance of what the 25th Amendment is. It would seem to be the path of least resistance, and with Pence, as bad and probably complicit as he is, as his successor, power would still reside in a Republican president and hence might tip a few people over to that as the pretext for Trump's removal, rather than impeachment, which could scoop up Pence as well.
.. I think Trumph will give it up.. but its very possible he will quit privately.. and escape the political bitter end & true infamy. Rather he will quit because disclosures of his various reckless mob & organized crime financial aspects. There seem so many contradiction between his sons previous boasts of incoming Russian money.. which Trumph will not address, instead clinging to then story he no such 'income' from Russians.. Of course those Russians are expert in shufling funds via other countries and corrupted bankers.He'll try to protect his Brand of course.. but he's fighting a losing battle with age, and extremely shady and slippery business practice and dangerous associates. The money those creeps have is astronomical.. and gee, isn't that guy Putin one of the biggest fish in that pond? The Trump Brand.. is for fools.. its garbage & will only become worse. By association, and complicity his family, cronies etc etc et al will join Trumph as punchlines.. and punching bags for pundits, journos and comedians. Its all headed down the toilet soon. And the GOP will be satisfied a completely unelectable guy like Pence will ascent the throne.. and be perect for their needs and those of Steve Bannon. The nazis and rascists don't care who.. as long as there's a real dirtbag in the Oval Office, the environment is sublime in their view
I hope Trump will be gone soon, Salamander. However, Bob Hepburn has an interesting column in today's paper that suggests one should be careful for what one wishes for, given that Pence is also truly frightening, but for a different reason. It echoes your observations about the V.P. https://www.thestar.com/opinion/2017/05/18/please-dont-impeach-donald-trump-hepburn.html