Alan Lichtman's Predictive Failure

While I have resolved to give as little space in my head as possible to the guy who won the American presidential race. I remain fascinated by the dynamics that returned him to power. A recent Guardian piece on Alan Lichtman perhaps sheds some light.

Lichtman is storied for his prognostications of American presidential elections.

Allan Lichtman had correctly forecast the result of nine of the past 10 US presidential elections (and even the one he didn’t, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). His predictive model of “13 keys” to the White House was emulated around the world and seemed all but indestructible.

This time, he forecast a defeat of Don Trump.  So what went wrong? Why did the 13 keys to the White House this university professor developed with a Russian expert on earthquakes fail this time? One of the key reasons, he says, is irrationality.

“The keys are premised on the proposition that a rational, pragmatic electorate [my emphasis] decides whether the White House party has governed well enough to get another four years,” he explains. “Just as this kind of hate and violence is new, there are precedent-shattering elements now to our political system, most notably disinformation.

And there is do doubt that disinformation played a major role in the election, especially that which was disseminated by Elon Musk.

“There’s always been disinformation but it has exploded to a degree we’ve never seen before. It’s not just Fox News and the rightwing media. It’s also rightwing podcasters and we have a brand new player, the $300bn guy, Elon Musk, whose wealth exceeds that of most countries in the world and has heavily put his thumb on disinformation.

“It’s been reported that the disinformation that [Musk] disseminates has been viewed billion of times. 

That includes disinformation about inflation, jobs, employment, the stock market, growth, hurricane aid, the Ukraine war and undocumented immigrants, falsely portrayed as dangerous killers when in fact they commit crimes at far lower rate than native-born Americans.

“We’re seeing something new in our politics, which affected the prediction and could affect future predictions but has a much bigger message for the future of our democracy. George Orwell was 40 years too soon. He made it clear that dictatorships don’t just arise from brutality and suppression. They arise from control of information: doublethink. Famine is plenty, war is peace. We’re in the doublethink era and maybe we can get out of it, maybe not.”

Another factor, he says, is the fecklessness of Merrick Garland, the Attorney General and head of the Department of Justice, who he describes as spineless, keeping with a Democratic propensity:

 He diddled for almost two years before appointing a special counsel [to investigate Trump’s role in the January 6 2021 insurrection].

“We all knew on January 7 what Trump had done. Certainly we knew it by the time Merrick Garland was appointed in early 2021. If he had acted as he should have right away, everything would have been different. I believe Trump would have been convicted of serious federal crimes and either be in jail or be on probation and the whole political system would have been different.”

Lichtman adds: “He epitomises the spineless Democrats. ‘Oh, I don’t want to do this because I might seem political and Republicans might criticise me.’

Some would say predicting people's behaviour is a mug's game. With the massive loss of rationality we bear witness to today, I would tend to agree with that assessment. 

 

 

Blatant Racism

I don't have anything especially interesting to about write today, so I thought I would put up this video that exemplifies the unapologetic racism of Don Trump and his adherents. 

This is not a dog whistle. It is a loud, piercing, desperate scream of fear that he will lose the presidential race to Kamala Harris

Which Angel Will It Be?

I awoke from a dream this morning in which it seemed I was being registered in a concentration camp, filled with forms and regulations that had to be filled out and followed. As unpleasant as it was, the dream was mercifully short.

With the dream in mind, I began thinking about how easy it is to debase and dehumanize people. History and contemporary events readily bear that out. But what about the opposite? How difficult is it to ennoble people, raise their hopes for a better day, and, in general, appeal to the better angels of their nature?

At times it seems easy. I recall a day in 2015 where I felt inspiration and hope after the long dark night of Stephen Harper's rule. It was the day that Trudeau and his team walked to Rideau Hall to be sworn in with the promise of different and better things ahead.. But subsequent events, beginning with the Prime Minister breaking his vow on electoral reform and the reappearance of traditional Liberal arrogance, frayed those strands of hope over subsequent years.

Americans, it seems to me, are now at a similar juncture. After years of relentless denigration, debasement and violent incitements engineered by Don Trump, they now have an opportunity to embrace a new path which, one hopes, will prove less illusionary than the Trudeau one. That path is the one being laid out by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

And judging by reports, there is a real hunger for their message.

Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, continued their swing-state tour with rallies in rural Wisconsin and Detroit, Michigan, on Wednesday, that the campaign said brought out more than 10,000 people each.

 In Eau Claire, a north-western Wisconsin city less than two hours from Minneapolis and St Paul, Minnesota, the rally drew attendees from both states – and 12,000 people in total, the campaign said. The Detroit rally on Wednesday night drew 15,000 supporters in another crucial swing state, the Harris campaign told reporters. Walz called it “the largest rally of the campaign” so far.

The big Detroit crowd repeatedly chanted: “We’re not going back,” Democrats’ counter to Trump’s anti-abortion politics and “make America great again” slogan.

 Attendees in Wisconsin said they were enthusiastic about seeing a Harris and Walz ticket. “I’m elated,” said Lori Schlecht, a teacher from Minnesota who said she was excited about Walz given his background in public education – Walz was a public school teacher before he was elected to the US House of Representatives in 2006. “Minnesota is blessed to have him, and I’m glad to see him at the national level. He is authentic and real – he’ll get shit done.”

When given the opportunity, I think people crave authenticity, not the faux kind peddled by Trump and his people who rely, not on inspiring people, but provoking the worst angels of their nature. And judging by letters to the editor, Canadians are feeling the same hope:

In a plot twist worthy of a political thriller, Americans have just been given a chance to save themselves by choosing to do what’s right and no longer defaulting to the lesser evil. For the first time in a long time, American democracy appears to be working. Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a previous social studies teacher, as her Democratic running mate. Consider the symbolism: a woman of colour and a teacher teaming up to challenge the re-election of Donald Trump, the reigning champion of insurrectionist chaos.

Walz brings to the table an educated notion that co-operation, not competition, is humanity’s evolutionary secret. This represents the clash of real humanistic values versus the phoney, weird MAGA values of Trumpist populists. This isn’t just a choice between red and blue. It’s a choice between reality and reality TV.  Let the “first Walz” for re-establishing credibility and decency in American democracy begin.

Tony D’Andrea, Toronto 

... In Walz, Harris has found a real mensch, a man who is as easy to work with as Donald Trump is the opposite. Walz can out-folksy the populism types, and he’s the real deal when it comes to wanting to make life better for working-class and poor families. 

Ron Charach, Toronto

We all await with bated breath which version of human nature the American people will choose. 

This Epidemic Is Widespread And Growing

On this blog I have never made a secret of my disdain for those who are willfully ignorant and mindlessly led. To allow someone else to do our thinking for us is unforgivably lazy and a complete dereliction of the responsibilities of citizenship. Yet in both the United States and Canada, that dereliction seems widespread and growing.

Consider the circus (a.k.a, the Republican National Convention) that so recently concluded in Milwaukee, site of Don Trump's presidential nomination and the quasi-apotheosis of J.D. Vance as his running mate. The embrace of cheap emotions, distortions and lies there was widespread. Witness this distasteful scene, which earned a rousing ovation:

Our movement is about single moms like mine .... Really? Past performance suggests something quite different, and apparently saying that your mom is now 10 years clean and sober is not cheaply voyeuristic and exploitive but inspiring. It is, if nothing else, certainly soap-opera worthy.

That Vance and Trump can get away with such nonsense did not escape the notice of Andrew Philips, as he notes this from Vance's speech:

“America’s ruling class wrote the checks [sic]. Communities like mine paid the price.”

“America’s ruling class?” A Democrat who used that kind of language would be scorched for waging “class war,” for promoting division and turning his back on the American dream of everyone rising together. Democrats are gun-shy about that. Even now, when under Joe Biden they’ve done more to create good working-class jobs than Trump ever did, they soft-pedal their message.

But Vance gets away with it. My favourite part of his convention speech was when he slammed Biden for supporting the “disastrous invasion of Iraq” and sending working-class kids off to fight and die in far-off deserts.

That is truly chutzpah on a grand scale. I seem to recall it was a Republican president, George W. Bush, who ordered that disastrous invasion and the even more disastrous attempt to pacify Iraq and the region that followed.

After recalling Vance's rank hypocrisy and opportunism (which I discussed in my previous post, Philips asks a pertinent question:

[H]asn’t Vance, a successful venture capitalist among other things, joined that same ruling class he now rails against? Isn’t the Trump-Vance project now backed by a coterie of billionaires like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel? Isn’t all the class-war talk just a smokescreen for traditional Republican policies that leave Vance’s hillbilly relatives scrambling for crumbs?

Maybe. But if you’re the kind of person who’s devouring articles in the New Yorker and the New York Times detailing all this, you’re already a lost cause from the Trump-Vance POV. And the evidence is those kind of attacks aren’t landing. It’s like going at Pierre Poilievre for targeting “gatekeepers” while spending his entire adult life as the ultimate gatekeeper — a career politician. True, but frankly so what?

A comparison with Canada's mentality is inevitable, along with the fact that the hard right has stolen from the Democrats and the Liberals/NDP the mantle of working/middle class champions.

The arrival of Vance is another big step in the Republicans’ campaign to displace Democrats as champions of the American working-class. Poilievre and, in his own way, Doug Ford, are managing the same trick in Canada, stealing that space from the Liberals/NDP. It’s astonishing, and disappointing, that progressives on both sides of the border have allowed conservatives to pull that off.

I'm not sure progressives could have done much about it. It is not often in their natures to rant, chant, hector, exploit and grossly manipulate those whose issues they advocate for. To lie wantonly and shamelessly would require a breadth of unscrupulousness that would make them no different from those they fight.

To conclude, while playing from some sort of reasonable playbook may now seem out of date, the alternative is far worse.

Gun Love And Race Hatred - A Powerful Convergence

Although no real good can come out of it, I continue to be both rivetted and repulsed by the ongoing devolution of American society. Everywhere one looks, it is apparent that political leadership inspired by vision and integrity is close to extinction, replaced by demagoguery and pandering to America's basest elements. Indeed, it seems the powers-that-be barely make even a pretence of respect for democracy anymore.

The states are leading the charge in this race to the dictatorial bottom, and the most recent example is a profoundly disturbing one: the ouster of  two state representatives from the Republican-led Tennessee House. This anti-democratic action, a convergence of America's love of the gun and hatred of racial minorities, has the attention of the world.

Two Democratic members of the Tennessee House of Representatives have been expelled while a third member was spared in an ousting by Republican lawmakers that was decried by the trio as oppressive, vindictive and racially motivated.

Protesters packed the state Capitol on Thursday to denounce the expulsions of Reps. Justin Jones and Rep. Justin Pearson and to advocate for gun reform measures a little over a week after a mass shooting devastated a Nashville school.

 Following their expulsion – which House Republicans said was in response to the representatives’ leadership of gun control demonstrations on the chamber floor last week – Jones and Pearson called for protesters to return to the Capitol when the House is back in session on Monday.

Rep. Gloria Johnson, who is White and wasn’t ousted, slammed the votes removing Jones and Pearson, who are Black, as racist. Asked by CNN’s Alisyn Camerota why she believes she wasn’t expelled, Johnson said the reason is “pretty clear.”

“I am a 60-year-old White woman, and they are two young Black men,” Johnson said.

According to GOP leadership, Jones and Pearson were expelled because they broke “several rules of decorum and procedure on the House floor.” Worth noting is that the expulsion is only the third in the state since Reconstruction, the period that followed the Civil War.

Of course, it is hard not to see the real reasons behind the expulsions: the strong influence of the gun lobby which has made a fetish of never saying "sorry," even when so many young, innocent lives have been lost to school shootings. The other reason, of course, is, as Gloria Johnson stated, racism. 

Without doubt, the biggest victim of all is democracy:

On “CNN This Morning,” Jones said, “I think what happened was a travesty of democracy because they expelled the two youngest Black lawmakers – which is no coincidence – from the Tennessee state legislature because we are outspoken, because we fight for our district.”

Jones described the session as a “toxic, racist work environment,” and said he spoke out because the House speaker ruled him out of order when he brought up the issue of gun violence. “If I didn’t know this happened to me, I would think that this was 1963 instead of 2023,” he added.

Only in Amerika, eh? One fervently hopes and prays that remains true. 

UPDATED: A Breath Of Fresh Air

Newly-elected Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez articulates the kind of values that progressives pine for in their political leaders. Given the gladiatorial nature of American politics, the chances of her vision coming to fruition are probably slight; however, just getting her ideas out there in the public arena is an accomplishment, one sure to spark a great deal of heated discussion in many quarters.

While the following video is about 14 minutes in length, even watching just a few minutes will give you a measure of the woman:



You can read more about her, and see additional video, here.

UPDATE: Predictably, the perpetually aggrieved and threatened and outraged rabid right has already launched a full frontal assault on Ocasion-Cortez.

Thought For The Day

Voter Suppression And Gerrymandering

Robert Reich does his usual fine job of warning about threats to American society and democracy posed by the entrenched interests who care nothing for principle and everything about the acquisition and retention of power:

Voting rights are under attack. States across the country have adopted voter suppression laws and the Trump administration could try to implement similar measures at the national level. We must stay vigilant. The right to vote is the cornerstone of our democracy.

Mandatory Church Attendance?

I'm sorry. As Johnny Carson used to say, "I do not make these things up, folks, I merely report them."

Click here to play the video.

Perhaps Americans have far more in common with that theocracy in Iran than they realize?

UPDATED: Meanwhile, South Of The Border

Ah yes, that land whose political representatives make our elected reprobates look like shining exemplars. For this edition of The Dark Side, we return to the ongoing saga of Gordon Klingenschmitt (a.k.a. Dr. Chaps), recently elected as a Republican State Legislator in Colorado.

A man with many demons (which he regularly exorcises), in this edition he exploits explores a tragedy wrought by the 'demonic spirit of murder' that, it seems, has provoked God's judgement:



UPDATE: It appears that many Republicans and other right-wingers are disassociating themselves from this crazed evangelical:

“God did not will for this horrific tragedy to happen,” said Sarah Zagorski, who leads the anti-abortion group. “Sadly, Rep. Klingenschmitt’s comments take away from the seriousness of this tragedy and the aftermath Michelle and her family are facing.”

“Gordon does not speak for his caucus,” said Rep. Polly Lawrence, the House assistant minority leader.

“He does not represent the Colorado Republican Party,” said Steve House, chairman of the state GOP, although he pointed out that Klingenschmitt had a First Amendment right express his beliefs.

Several other leading GOP members denounced the lawmaker’s comments, including Laura Carno – who started a Facebook page in January called “Conservatives against Gordon Klingenschmitt” – and former state Rep. Mark Waller, who previously held the same House seat, reported the Denver Post.

I guess you know you are in trouble when even fellow-travellers repudiate you.

Elizabeth Warren - Calm, Collected, Logical And Reasonable - A Rare Politician - UPDATED

Earlier today, Owen at Northern Reflections, commenting on a piece by Joseph Stiglitz, wrote a post on student debt, a scourge on both sides of the border.

Here is a video of Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, for whom I have a great deal of respect, on her proposal for dealing with that scourge. Eminently reasonable, one can safely predict that her approach will inflame the right-wing zealots:

H/t Upworthy

UPDATE: This piece by Truthdig's Robert Scheer on Elizabeth Warren's quest is worth having a look at.

Crass Manipulation About Iran's Nuclear Intentions

Those who believe that the public is being as crassly manipulated about Iran as it was by the lies that served as prologue to the Iraqi invasion will find two recent articles of interest.

The first, entitled No defensible reasons to attack Iran, by Gwynne Dyer, pierces many of the fallacies being used to incite fervour for a war with Iran, while the second, Are We About to Get Embroiled in a Nightmare War With Iran? by Noam Chomsky, suggests who the real renegade states are.

For those who believe in the importance of critical thinking, I recommend both for perusal.

UPDATE: Click here to read Fareed Aakaria's thoughts on Iran.