A Bad Deal Is Better Than No Deal?

Honestly, I had resolved not to write another post about the pending surrender trade 'deal' between the U.S. and Canada until I knew the full dimensions of the capitulation. What prompts me now is the stunning revelation that, while Carney has asked (almost begged, according to Manitoba's Wab Kinew) the provinces to put American alcohol back on their shelves, said premiers know little about the deal.

Ottawa continued to keep most stakeholders and premiers in the dark on specific numbers, tariff rates, potential exemptions, and other Canadian concessions that are on the table.

Carney similarly withheld details from his caucus, one Liberal MP saying

that “minimal information” was shared, given the ongoing nature of the talks. 

The Globe and Mail reports that Carney

has not shared the proposed pact’s details with the public and six sources across Canadian industry and government said the Prime Minister has also mostly left them in the dark, just a day before the deal is set to be closed.

These are major red flags, warning all of us that the hoisting of the white flag is imminent.

Sadly, the Carney government seems to be in the grips of a massive, naive delusion: that a deal, no matter how bad, will pave the way to CUSMA renegotiations.

More important, the Carney government sees the proposed deal on the table as securing a “pathway” or agreement by the Trump administration to engage in a renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and acknowledgment that CUSMA is in the economic interest of all three parties, weeks after Trump said his country didn’t need CUSMA and might do only side deals.

Additionally, the emerging media narrative is that imposing the new 50% tariffs on a raft of Canadian products (many of which are CUSMA compliant), is a certainty without a 'deal', despite the fact that the authorizing authority for them (the Smoot-Harwley Tariff Act) is a questionable one that could be fought via complaint mechanisms. Many 'authorities' have warned of the dire consequences of walking away from these negotiations.

“If we do decide to keep fighting, it’s because ultimately the deal wasn’t good for Canada,” said the official, “but the truth of the matter is, (Kinew) is not saying how he would deal with the 56,000 jobs and the $28 billion worth of goods that would have been impacted.”

The official added “part of the realistic world” the Carney government is looking at is that the latest tariffs would hit five per cent of trade now “and if we lose CUSMA entirely, it’s 85 per cent of trade” that could be affected.

This amputation of elbows up will lead to nothing good. The lack of shared details from the Canadian side is telling, in that they do not want us to know other aspects of the deal until it has been finalized.These details apparently include, in addition to restocking our shelves with their alcohol, U.S. demands that

Buy Canadian procurement programs [be terminated]; that Ottawa lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos; and that the system for allocating licences under dairy supply management be changed.

Washington also demanded that Ottawa complete its purchase of F-35 fighter jets from American defence contractor Lockheed Martin; buy American military hardware as part of joining the Golden Dome missile defence system; grant the U.S. right of first refusal in buying critical minerals from Canada; and increase the country’s oil exports to the U.S.

Essentially, the above seems to mean that the Americans will be given almost exclusive access to our critical minerals,

So what do we get in return? Lower tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, but those lower rates will not help the car industry.

 Lana Payne, the head of Canada’s largest private-sector union, criticized the idea of agreeing to exempt only U.S. content from Mr. Trump’s tariffs and not auto parts made in Canada and Mexico.

“Agreeing to the U.S. auto carveout is very concerning as it will impact what we build in Canada and our competitiveness,” said Ms. Payne, president of Unifor, which represents 40,000 Canadian auto industry workers. “My concern is also how this carveout is viewed when we get to the CUSMA table and is seen as a precedent for those talks undermining jobs in this country.”

Oh, and the other thing we get is America's ongoing contempt for us and our weakness. 

At a private fundraiser in Southampton, N.Y. this week, Mr. Vance described Mr. Carney as a “very sweet guy,” but mocked his efforts to get a better deal from Mr. Trump.

Mr. Carney “comes in and puffs his chest out and says, ‘I’m going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump,’ ” Mr. Vance said in a recording of the speech obtained by The Canadian Press. “It’s hilarious because Carney presents this as some victory for Canada when fundamentally, like, they climb down on a lot of issues.”

Canadians are not mushrooms to be kept in the dark. Perhaps when the light finally emerges, the best political epitaph for Mark Carney and his array of appeasers is this one: "They promised much but delivered almost nothing. "

 

 

 

UPDATED: Keep Calm And Carry On

That's the advice of Justin Ling as as the deadline for Trump's new set of punitive tariffs fast approaches, and that strikes me as eminently wise, for any number of reasons:

The Americans are apparently still demanding we join Trump’s half-baked Golden Dome missile defence system, ditch our made-in-Canada procurement rules and get back to the business of buying almost exclusively American military hardware. Each should be a firm red line for us.

[W]ere the prime minister to brief the public about where things are at, I think he would find that most Canadians are ready to say: no deal.

Stubborn and prideful though it may be, it’s the right move. We are just three months from the U.S. midterm elections, which Trump has, thus far, failed to rig in his favour. If the Democrats can regain control of Congress, it will put Trump’s ability to levy tariffs in considerable doubt.

As well, we know, along with the rest of the world, that Trump's signature on a deal means nothing.

... Trump uses tariffs as a means of extortion — and after he’s successfully extorted his victims, we know he keeps the tariffs in place anyway.

Indeed, even the right-wing press is taking a hard line on these 'negotiations'. The National Post's Kelly McParland writes that talks with Trump are pointless.

Whatever the temporary pain, Canada would be far better off in the long run avoiding any sort of agreement that lets Washington claim the slightest victory in its attempt to bully concessions out of Ottawa.

Better to walk away, let the White House do its worst and deal with the consequences. That will inevitably be the result under this administration in any case.

If the reports are true, Washington is essentially demanding a surrender of our sovereignty:

special rights to Canadian minerals, required purchases of U.S. technologies, guaranteed access to Canadian resources, all of which represent a surrender of Canada’s right to do as it pleases with its assets.

Now’s as good a time as any to inform Washington Canada is uninterested in further pointless discussions, and let ordinary Americans get back to bearing the brunt of their president’s expensive obsession.

As I have written before on this blog, the national mood is one of defiance and anger, as well it should be. Mark Carney's government will also soon be facing three byelections, events that should give him pause if he is tempted to continue down the path of appeasement that has yielded nothing but more outrageous demands from Trump.  

Sometimes, the voice of the people demands to be heard and heeded.

UPDATE: And on the topic of the voice of the people, here's one that speaks for me:

Enough capitulation. The time is now to stand up to Trump

A clear message for Carney: Canadians will not tolerate any more concessions to Trump, Aug. 14

I am fed up with Prime Minister Mark Carney knuckling under to U.S. demands.

Enough is enough.

Now he’s telling Canadians to prepare to put U.S. liquor back on the shelves. No more. If Trump continues with his nonsense, then let’s play our ‘trump’ cards: electricity, steel, aluminum, fertilizer, lumber and oil. The U.S. is in dire need of all our resources, whether they want to admit it or not.

We need to get all the key players together who represent these resources and come up with a game plan.

Regardless of what Trump says, the American president is under pressure from major industries to keep CUSMA in place.

Premiers, put your money where your mouth is and stand up to Trump.

Larry Snow, Oakville

 

 

His Genius For All To See

 I'm talking about Theo Moudakis here.

Canadian Pride, Canadian Anger

 

If you think about it, in some ways we owe Don Trump some thanks. Not only has he roused us from out normal placidity, evern torpor, to feel deep pride in our country, he has also made us very, very angry. In the long term, that can only work to our collective good.

As previously noted, Canadians are responding to American tariffs by making concerted efforts to buy Canadian products, shunning the American version in increasing numbers. Similarly, plans to travel to the U.S. are being cancelled, often redirected to other countries, including our own.

Canadians are clearly putting their money where their mouths are.

Pam, a 64-year-old retired woman from British Columbia, said she and her husband had cancelled a five-week trip to Palm Springs, losing their $5,000 (£3,900) deposit. They were planning, she said, to buy a Honda truck now instead of a Ford. 

One woman from British Columbia who lives a 10-minute drive from the US border and is participating in the boycott pointed to the irony of having joined several Facebook groups promoting Buy Canadian campaigns – one of which had now ballooned to 1.2 million members.

The tariffs, or rather our government's response to them, have had a massive impact on the politics of this country. A Polaris Strategic Insights survey reveals the following:

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, said the survey contained warning signs for federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in his looming faceoff with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal successor.

 Fully 41 per cent of respondents believe Poilievre would “do what Trump demands” while 27 per cent felt the Tory chief would “strongly oppose his demands.”

In contrast, just 17 per cent thought Liberal front-runner Mark Carney would do what Trump wanted, while 44 per cent said the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor would oppose the president’s demands.

Similarly, 16 per cent said Liberal hopeful Chrystia Freeland would do what Trump demanded, while 44 per cent said the former deputy prime minister would oppose his demands.

Probably the most heartening news I read this morning was Justin Trudeau's response to Trump's demand that Canada cease retaliatory tariffs:

... Trudeau declined, agreeing only that he might delay the second tranche of countermeasures, depending on whether Trump agreed to abide by tariff-free access under the North American free trade deal the two renegotiated and signed in 2018.

But Canada’s counter-tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports would remain in place until U.S. tariffs came off, Trudeau is said to have told Trump. 

I couldn't be prouder of our government at this moment. 

Canada Strong!

A Calm Voice Of Reason

If you don't know of him, allow me a moment to introduce you to Flavio Volpe. President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, he was appointed in 2023 as a Member of The Order of Canada. 

Volpe received the honour for advancing Canada’s automotive and technology industries on an international scale as a leading policy expert in national trade and industry competition. Created in 1967, the Order of Canada is one of the country’s highest civilian honours, recognizing people across all sectors who have made extraordinary and sustained contributions to Canada.

Even more importantly, Volpe has emerged as a calm, incisive and wise voice for all Canadians as he offers his views and advice on how to deal with the U.S., a country apparently intent on waging a massive trade war against our country. 

Here is a short clip from a CBC interview which will offer you a measure of the man:

At a time when shrill voices seem to dominate the media, sane perspectives offered by people like Volpe and his analyses of the threats posed to our country by Trump and his henchpeople are much-needed. 

One hopes that the federal government recognizes what he brings to both the negotiating and the policy-formulation table.

UPDATED: A Repository Of Wisdom

I read a letter to the editor the other day to the effect that policy-makers would be wise to consult the op-ed pages for inspiration. Good journals offer repositories of wisdom, and we could do far worse than consider their perspectives and advice.

Here are three letters from today's Star that amply illustrate the above:

America has always preached from the bully pulpit

Canada won’t back down, will scale up retaliation against Trump’s tariffs as needed, government says, Feb. 2

It truly boggles my mind to now see politicians of all stripes, decision makers, businesses and many Canadians are belatedly stepping on the Canada First bandwagon, now that Donald Trump coughed, metaphorically.

Where were you when it was downright evident for decades past that America was and is a selfish and self-centred bully that does everything and anything to suit herself and her interests only, the world be damned?

You were all sleepwalking, singing the praises about our southern neighbour, visiting the country on a regular basis, patronizing their businesses, rather than shopping locally, to save a few pennies. A little jolt by a bully has now awakened you all.

All our interests, economically and otherwise, were put into the giant’s basket for sheer laziness on the part of politicians and businesses instead of large-scale diversifying to other countries years ago. Not a single automobile is made of 100 per cent Canadian parts. Why? Relying too much on our “friends” to the south?

I told you so, I can now say. I am not being a hypocrite, as I have not visited the United States since 2000, do not own property there, do not buy a return trip by air to another country via America, do not cross the border to shop.

I have consciously been patronizing local businesses and Canadian goods exclusively, as best I can.

Aquil Ali, Toronto

Canada must stand its ground in the face of aggression

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must choose whether he should follow the course of Neville Chamberlain or Winston Churchill.

For the survival of Canadians, and of people throughout the world, I hope he chooses the latter.

Canadians can lead the world to show the American would-be dictator that no matter the economic hardship or individual sacrifice, Canadians will stand together, stand strong and wield their sword to protect their homes and rights.

Millions of Americans are with you.

Jeff C. Tavares, Greenwood, Indiana

Hit Trump where it hurts: the wallet

Well, Ding Dong Don got his desired result and has everyone running around in a tizzy.

It’s obvious diplomacy doesn’t work with him but firmness, discomfort, fear of strong negotiators like Chrystia Freeland, pushback from his base, other oligarchs and organized, unrelenting vocal protest groups do.

Canadians haven’t been this united in a long time and seem to be embracing the boycott principle.

This is an excellent strategy, as long as we don’t weaken.

I am 85 and have travelled all 50 states, many times, since the age of nine and have always found the citizens to be kind and generous. I will not travel across the border until sanity is restored in Washington.

My plan is to contact newspaper editors, chambers of commerce, travel associations, politicians and any other organization with a vested interest in restoring sanity and let them know what non-American car, machine or product I purchased. I would also supply the cost of my latest travel to a non-U.S. country.

Sad to say, but the only thing worthy of respect in Trump’s world is money. So if the bottom line deteriorates, he will respond.

He’s a coward. Stand up to him.

John Russell, Fonthill, Ont.

Given the outpouring of patriotic fervour and new consumer boycotts of American goods and travel, we can only hope the momentum continues to build and unites all of us in the face of a common foe.

UPDATE: Now a word from Charlie Angus:

More Heartening Signs

One of the best and most heartening things emerging from our current conflict with the United States is a very powerful resurgence of national pride. The realization of how precious our national heritage is is spurring increasing numbers of Canadians to buy Canadian, forgo travel to the U.S. and rediscover the beauty and pleasures of our own country.

My sense is that the deep wound by the Americans that we collectively feel will not be easily assuaged or massaged. Our resentment and feelings of betrayal, I think, will be long lasting. Here are some comments from readers of The Globe and Mail.

“My partner and I have decided to stop all travel to the U.S. (even for layovers) and avoid all American products. This includes Amazon, Netflix, and American clothing brands. We will support Mexican and European products and treat it as a new opportunity to explore Canadian options that we might otherwise have not discovered. We will treat this as an opportunity to grow our pride in what it means to be Canadian. I hope trade barriers will be removed between provinces so we can explore Canadian products from other fellow Canadians (i.e., Manitoban or B.C. beer in Quebec please)!” – Matthew Parent

“Bought some books and did not go through Amazon but rather got them in Canada. We are getting new windows and are definitely not buying the American option but Canadian instead. I certainly won’t be vacationing or visiting the U.S. either. As for groceries, I am lucky to have a wonderful local grocery called Marilu’s Market here in Burlington which I shop at and they sell a lot of Canadian products also. I will actively look to reject American goods.” – Lynn Crosby

This whole fiasco has broken my relationship with the U.S. in a permanent fashion. I will buy Canadian for everything possible. Where it isn’t possible, I will chose any other nation over U.S.-made goods. I would like to see more Made in Canada signs in the grocery stores. Toilet paper and paper products will come from Canada, cosmetics will come from Canada or Europe. Shampoo will come from Canada, as will hand soap. My children’s clothes and shoes will be harder but I am determined to make as big of an impact as I possibly can. A 30-day reprieve of the tariffs will do nothing to change my resolve.” – Andrea Cochrane

“No more - ever: Jack Daniels, California Zinfandel, Buicks, John Deere, Arizona trips, American produce. And that’s just the start. Americans are no longer our friends – they’re barely even our allies.” – Dave Jorgensen

Our tourist dollars represent 11% of the U.S. market. Canadians spent over $20 billion there last year. Many are changing their travel plans, and let there be no doubt, forgoing travel patronage of the U.S. is going to cost the Americans.

“This morning we cancelled our May 8-17 trip to Palm Springs. Will visit the Canadian Rockies in Kananaskis and Banff instead.” – Tom Becker

“Cancelled a much anticipated trip to Arizona and rerouted it to Toronto (in March!). Not super keen on funding the U.S. in the short- or the long-term.” – Jay Jackson

“My shoes will never touch American soil again no matter how this resolves. Our American friends are appalled at how Trump has denegraded Canada and said they agree with our anger. They will be coming up here for visits, instead. He has permanently burned the friendship tie we had.” – Tony Flynn

“For more than 25 years, every spring, this motley crew of Kirkland Lakers (and a few others before us) have come together at Byrncliff, a modest golf resort near Buffalo. There, we traded jokes, drank a few bevvies, played poker and made every attempt to break 100 on the links (most of us being unsuccessful). Yesterday we informed the course that we were canceling our reservations slated for May. We just couldn’t stomach the thought of spending our money in TrumpLandia. We are Canadians first and always.We estimate it will cost the resort at least US$10,000.” – Rick Doyon

“I’d rather eat turnips and kale rather than put up with this bullying. Even now that they’ve paused it for 30 days, the fact that they think they can threaten us like this is intolerable. Forget oranges unless they come from Spain. Same with garlic. Or we do without things, fine! I’ve always tried to make sure my personal care products are made in Canada (thank you Green Beaver!). Our cars have always been made in Europe (where are the Canadian cars!?). We toyed with the idea of a Tesla. But never now. They want an economic war? Forget fentanyl, that’s just a red herring; they want our water, our oil and wheat, our minerals, they want Arctic drilling. They’re not stopping. Neither am I. Neither are most people I know. It feels like we’re moving into a wartime economy, that’s fine. We can manage and we will. It’s our fault for allowing ourselves to become so intertwined. It’s going to be very painful to disengage but we can.” – Linda Gustafson

In the days, weeks and years to come, it is incumbent upon all of us to reconsider both our relationship with the U.S. and what we can do to bolster the land that we love.

UPDATED: In Light Of The Insanity From Our Southern 'Neighbours'

 .... this seems particularly apt. Thanks to my friend Gary for passing it along.

And there's this:

Charlie Angus

‪@charlieangus104.bsky.social‬

Message to the grifter king from Canada: "We will have no parley with you, or the grisly gang who work your wicked will. You do your worst and we will do our best. We do not expect to hit without being hit back, and we intend with every week that passes to hit harder." - Winston Churchill

And this:

UPDATE: More derangement from Trump:

Some Plausible Canadian Responses

With the unhinged one who is now leading the U.S. seemingly intent on wreaking economic havoc upon Canada, astute readers of newspapers have a panoply of suggestions as to how to respond:

How everyday people can respond to Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump signals 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports could be coming Feb. 1, Jan. 21

While others ponder an appropriate national response to Trump’s tariffs, here is something we can all do now: Cancel plans to holiday in the U.S.A. That won’t cost Canada a dime in lost trade.

Gregory Sorbara, Toronto

Don’t buy American 

In Canada we vote with our ballots. On the international stage we vote with our wallets. Why are we waiting for the threatened “tariff axe” to fall? We as consumers can take action now by boycotting U.S. products and buying Canadian, wherever possible. Win/win. We pump more money into the local economy, encourage Canadian entrepreneurship and innovation, and send a clear message that we will not be cowed by the threats of a misinformed despot. And then we can talk about retaliation.

Michael Bines, Toronto

It’s already easy to shop Canadian

Make it easy to buy Canadian, Jan. 27

It may be nice, but Canadians do not need a maple leaf sticker to buy Canadian products. I have been shopping Canadian as my first choice for years, followed by products from developing countries and other Western countries, besides the U.S. Fortunately, products available in Canada from perishables, to jams, oils, washer/dryers, furniture, etc., all have country of origin labels so making a choice is very easy. To further respond to Trump’s tariffs, Canadians should stop crossing the border to buy groceries, gas, etc., and not patronize American companies, e.g. Walmart, Costco, Uber, etc.

Aquil Ali, Toronto 

Cancel military contracts with U.S.

Donald Trump’s press secretary says Feb. 1 deadline for tariffs ‘still on the books, Jan. 28’

Why are we buying 88 F35A fighters from Lockheed-Martin and 14 to 16 P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft from Boeing when U.S. President Donald Trump has started a trade war with Canada? Time to cancel these contracts due to “force majeure.” I doubt Trump has included our military spending in his trade deficit “analysis,” not to mention the lower CAD.

Craig Steels, Calgary, Alta.

Re “Is it effective to boycott U.S. products? Evidence is mixed, but here’s what you can do to shop more Canadian” (Report on Business, Jan. 24): I will stop buying U.S. fruit, vegetables, beer and wine. I am also writing to food retailers and my provincial liquor board to ask them to stop importing these products.

Americans take commerce very seriously. It would take a concerted effort, but if U.S. businesses start seeing large export orders cancelled, they would wake up and complain to their government.

Paul Poscente Calgary

Re “Canada should respond to Trump by relaxing regulations, passing a ‘Buy Canada’ act, says National Bank CEO” (Report on Business, Jan. 24): It may be time to dust off protectionism as a potential economic survival strategy for Canada.

The global economy is increasingly dominated by large countries and mammoth global companies. Smaller countries are left with little to do other than supply commodities and cheap labour to the more powerful.

If we are to avoid this fate as open access to the U.S. market is lost, Canada should embrace both trade protectionism and ownership protectionism. Trade protectionism stops foreign interests from cornering the Canadian market, while ownership protectionism insists on keeping Canadian-owned corporations in Canadian hands.

Protectionism definitely has its downsides. But it could also result in a Canadian economy that is more resilient, diversified and dynamic, less vulnerable to economic blackmail by the United States or anyone else, and better able to provide good jobs for Canadians.

Jim Paulin Ottawa

As Canadians, we all have skin in this game. It remains to be seen whether or not we are up for the fight.

Content Warning

You should be advised, even belatedly, that looking upon this picture of Danielle Smith, Don Trump and the always obnoxious Kevin O' Leary can be damaging to the soul. At least it was to mine, surprised as I was to discover that even at my age, I am still capable of darkly imagining the collective fate that should befall them.

O' Leary was there as a kind of amicus curiae of the Trump kangaroo court, offering his 'good offices' to facilitate an American-Canadian economic merger. Smith was there to ostensibly talk up Canada as an energy powerhouse - no need for tariffs on oil and gas.

Moving on from the detritus depicted above, an antidote of sorts to my ravaged psyche arrived in the form of some letters to the editor from real Canadians, a few of which I reproduce below:

Canada must be prepared to shut our doors 

We need to let it be known that we will react immediately if the U.S. Head Fool implements his threats against Canada. The U.S. will be in a nasty position when he does his usual foolish stuff but we need to be ready to immediately shut our doors. This includes our exports of fuel, water, etc … so that Americans realize they made a huge mistake bringing the old, crooked guy back. Stand up Canada, support your governments and make the U.S. understand their mistake.

Chris Andrews, Vaughan, ON

 

Why no comment from Poilievre on Trump’s diatribes?

Threats, insults, and misinformation by Donald Trump towards Canada on a daily basis. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Doug Ford, and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly have put up a fight for Canada. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, an insulter and bully to Canadians, curled up cowardly in a corner. Instead of making a meaningful comment, he is busy preparing to go to Trump’s inauguration to suck up to Trump and Elon Musk. I have no doubt whatsoever, that Poilievre, Danielle Smith, and Scott Moe will sell out Canada to Donald Trump. They have the same ideologies as the Republicans — they do not believe in climate change or vaccines; they support religious extremists and conspiracy theories and align themselves with racist groups and personalities like Tucker Carlton. Where are you Poilievre?

Taij Chand, Toronto

And there is this missive from The Globe: 

In the early 1970s, Canada considered diversifying trade relationships away from the United States.

The concern was that the U.S. had undue economic and cultural influence over Canada, which made our great nation vulnerable. The “Third Option” did not materialize and instead free-trade agreements with the U.S., and eventually Mexico, were established. Through these agreements, Canada has become even more reliant on the U.S.

Fast-forward to the present and Donald Trump is threatening significant trade tariffs. We should reconsider the Third Option. We should undertake various actions such as joining the European Union, restarting trade negotiations with Britain, creating a bilateral-trade agreement with Mexico and developing new trade opportunities with other Commonwealth nations and emerging economies in Africa and Asia. If successful, our trade relationships would be diversified.

The best way to insulate the Canadian economy from Donald Trump is to make Canada less reliant on the U.S. for trade.

Lance Alexander Toronto

Oh, I almost forgot to include a picture of yet another rogue at the Trump love fest who, I understand, is a refugee from the woke police in Canada and currently residing in the home of the free and the brave: