When my son was young, he had a Magic 8 Ball which, if you asked it a question, would attempt to answer it after a fashion. One of its most frequent responses was something along the lines of, "All the signs point to it." For those given to political prognostications, that would seem to be the answer to the question of whether Doug Ford will call an early election in Ontario, despite winning a resounding majority two years ago.
Indeed, all the signs point to it. Despite paying out a potential $1 billion in early contract cancellation fees and subsides, Dougie is hell-bent on getting more alcohol into more hands at the earliest possible date. Why? Presumably non-drinker Doug believes that the way to a (wo)man's heart is through the liver, but more importantly, there are storm clouds on the horizon that may not augur well for a later election.
There is, of course the ongoing investigation into the Gteenbelt scandal, including a criminal probe by the RCMP. While such investigations are notoriously slow, it would not be a good look for the Ontario PCs if a negative result of that investigation came down before the next election. Another reason could be that they are still riding high in the polls, and given the recent by election results in Milton, one that was supposed to show the Liberals as a force to be reckoned with, the Liberals don't seem to have much of a ground game, leader Bonnie Crombie still finding her footing.
However, according to Robert Benzie and Rob Ferguson, the greatest impetus for an early election may be the fear of a Pierre Poilievre federal victory in 2025.
Sources say Ford is worried that if, as polls suggest, Pierre Poilievre wins an election expected in October 2025, there would be reduced transfer payments to the provinces, a scrapping of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s electric-vehicle strategy that is a cornerstone of Ontario economic policy and other slashed spending that would hurt the Progressive Conservatives.
However, such a plan is not without political peril.
... some Tories fear a reprise of 1990 — when popular Liberal premier David Peterson called a snap vote, and then lost to Bob Rae’s New Democrats in one of the most stunning upsets in Canadian political history.
“Peterson was higher in the polls (50 per cent in summer of 1990) than Ford (at 39 per cent in the latest Abacus Data survey) is now and had won a larger majority (in 1987 than Ford did in 2022),” said a fourth Tory.
“But voters were ornery and punished him for the early election.”
A fifth Tory expressed alarm that voters would feel it was “cynical and self-serving” to have a vote so soon after Ford received such a resounding re-election mandate in June 2022.
“What would the rationale be for going early?” asked the Ford loyalist.
Depending upon the engagement of the electorate, another peril could be the fact tha the PC government is showering payoffs and subsidies to various entities at a time when basic services in Ontario are fraying. Even if we consider just the payout to the Beer Store, to many, the money seems misallocated. Writes Robyn Urback:
To put the cost in perspective, that $225-million is roughly $100-million more than the Ontario government will spend to boost nursing enrolment over the next three years (the figure announced in the budget was $128-million). It represents nearly a third of what Ontario spends annually on autism services ($720-million). And it is almost equivalent to what the Ontario Liberals said it would cost in 2010-2011 to cancel a couple of gas-plant projects in Mississauga and Oakville. In reality, the cost for the Liberals to buy support in those ridings (which, of course, was paid for by taxpayers) rang in at more than $1-billion.
Then there is this missive from someone living in rural Ontario:
Apparently, Premier Doug Ford and his government are using valuable time and funds to put beer and wine in convenience stores. As a resident of a rural community in the province of Ontario, I would far rather see time and money spent on providing adequate health-care facilities, doctors and nurse practitioners to those of us who have no primary care provider and very little hope of attaining one in the near future. To me this push to supply more access to alcohol is misguided when so many Ontarians are struggling to get help for a wide range of health issues. Wake up, Ford. Realign your priorities to meet the real needs of the people of Ontario, the people who voted you into power.
Sharon Phelps, Lindsay
The cynic in me would say that most sins are quickly forgiven and forgotten by an often-oblivious electorate. My inner, barely-alive optimist hopes this is not the case.
