The chance of Donald Trump being convicted in his upcoming Senate trial is remote. There are far too many Republicans happy to forgive and forget (read that as fear of losing support of the Trump hordes).
There is, however, a quite valid alternative to Senate conviction, as Jennifer Rubin writes:
A criminal trial, both on the former president’s attempt to strong-arm Georgia election officials to change the state’s vote totals and his incitement before the Jan. 6 violent insurrection (coupled with his refusal to immediately and definitively call a halt to the uprising), would serve multiple purposes. If the Senate will not ban him from holding office, a criminal conviction — should Trump be found guilty — would almost certainly do the trick (or at least, we should hope it would in the era of right-wing conspiracy theories).
A criminal conviction would guarantee that Trump cannot run for future office, but it would serve perhaps an even more important function:
[A] criminal trial could provide a severe deterrent for future presidents who attempt to retain power through violence. It is not enough to mouth the empty platitude that the ex-president’s behavior was “unacceptable” if there are no adverse consequences. Without punishment, his failed coup would remain an open invitation to future presidents to try the same sort of power grab. Constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe observes, “Impeachment is about getting rid of officeholders who endanger the republic by abusing their powers, not about punishing them for their crimes. Punishment still must be meted out if the rule of law is to be respected and wrongdoers are to be held accountable.”
Moreover, as long as the hardcore MAGA crowd keeps repeating the Big Lie that the election was stolen, the need for a full factual airing of the white supremacist plot and the ex-president’s own attempt to induce Georgia to commit voter fraud remains. “If Trump is still maintaining the big lie after January 6, knowing his words have the power to incite violence, then it seems to me it’s potentially indicative of both his intent on the 6th and continued intent to engage in sedition,” says former prosecutor Joyce White Vance. “It’s certainly an interesting piece of evidence for prosecutors to have.”
Donald Trump has made a life and career out of evading consequences for his behaviour and actions. A criminal trial and conviction would go a long way toward rectifying that longstanding injustice.
