A Bad Deal Is Better Than No Deal?

Honestly, I had resolved not to write another post about the pending surrender trade 'deal' between the U.S. and Canada until I knew the full dimensions of the capitulation. What prompts me now is the stunning revelation that, while Carney has asked (almost begged, according to Manitoba's Wab Kinew) the provinces to put American alcohol back on their shelves, said premiers know little about the deal.

Ottawa continued to keep most stakeholders and premiers in the dark on specific numbers, tariff rates, potential exemptions, and other Canadian concessions that are on the table.

Carney similarly withheld details from his caucus, one Liberal MP saying

that “minimal information” was shared, given the ongoing nature of the talks. 

The Globe and Mail reports that Carney

has not shared the proposed pact’s details with the public and six sources across Canadian industry and government said the Prime Minister has also mostly left them in the dark, just a day before the deal is set to be closed.

These are major red flags, warning all of us that the hoisting of the white flag is imminent.

Sadly, the Carney government seems to be in the grips of a massive, naive delusion: that a deal, no matter how bad, will pave the way to CUSMA renegotiations.

More important, the Carney government sees the proposed deal on the table as securing a “pathway” or agreement by the Trump administration to engage in a renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and acknowledgment that CUSMA is in the economic interest of all three parties, weeks after Trump said his country didn’t need CUSMA and might do only side deals.

Additionally, the emerging media narrative is that imposing the new 50% tariffs on a raft of Canadian products (many of which are CUSMA compliant), is a certainty without a 'deal', despite the fact that the authorizing authority for them (the Smoot-Harwley Tariff Act) is a questionable one that could be fought via complaint mechanisms. Many 'authorities' have warned of the dire consequences of walking away from these negotiations.

“If we do decide to keep fighting, it’s because ultimately the deal wasn’t good for Canada,” said the official, “but the truth of the matter is, (Kinew) is not saying how he would deal with the 56,000 jobs and the $28 billion worth of goods that would have been impacted.”

The official added “part of the realistic world” the Carney government is looking at is that the latest tariffs would hit five per cent of trade now “and if we lose CUSMA entirely, it’s 85 per cent of trade” that could be affected.

This amputation of elbows up will lead to nothing good. The lack of shared details from the Canadian side is telling, in that they do not want us to know other aspects of the deal until it has been finalized.These details apparently include, in addition to restocking our shelves with their alcohol, U.S. demands that

Buy Canadian procurement programs [be terminated]; that Ottawa lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos; and that the system for allocating licences under dairy supply management be changed.

Washington also demanded that Ottawa complete its purchase of F-35 fighter jets from American defence contractor Lockheed Martin; buy American military hardware as part of joining the Golden Dome missile defence system; grant the U.S. right of first refusal in buying critical minerals from Canada; and increase the country’s oil exports to the U.S.

Essentially, the above seems to mean that the Americans will be given almost exclusive access to our critical minerals,

So what do we get in return? Lower tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, but those lower rates will not help the car industry.

 Lana Payne, the head of Canada’s largest private-sector union, criticized the idea of agreeing to exempt only U.S. content from Mr. Trump’s tariffs and not auto parts made in Canada and Mexico.

“Agreeing to the U.S. auto carveout is very concerning as it will impact what we build in Canada and our competitiveness,” said Ms. Payne, president of Unifor, which represents 40,000 Canadian auto industry workers. “My concern is also how this carveout is viewed when we get to the CUSMA table and is seen as a precedent for those talks undermining jobs in this country.”

Oh, and the other thing we get is America's ongoing contempt for us and our weakness. 

At a private fundraiser in Southampton, N.Y. this week, Mr. Vance described Mr. Carney as a “very sweet guy,” but mocked his efforts to get a better deal from Mr. Trump.

Mr. Carney “comes in and puffs his chest out and says, ‘I’m going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump,’ ” Mr. Vance said in a recording of the speech obtained by The Canadian Press. “It’s hilarious because Carney presents this as some victory for Canada when fundamentally, like, they climb down on a lot of issues.”

Canadians are not mushrooms to be kept in the dark. Perhaps when the light finally emerges, the best political epitaph for Mark Carney and his array of appeasers is this one: "They promised much but delivered almost nothing. "