A Bad Deal Is Better Than No Deal?

Honestly, I had resolved not to write another post about the pending surrender trade 'deal' between the U.S. and Canada until I knew the full dimensions of the capitulation. What prompts me now is the stunning revelation that, while Carney has asked (almost begged, according to Manitoba's Wab Kinew) the provinces to put American alcohol back on their shelves, said premiers know little about the deal.

Ottawa continued to keep most stakeholders and premiers in the dark on specific numbers, tariff rates, potential exemptions, and other Canadian concessions that are on the table.

Carney similarly withheld details from his caucus, one Liberal MP saying

that “minimal information” was shared, given the ongoing nature of the talks. 

The Globe and Mail reports that Carney

has not shared the proposed pact’s details with the public and six sources across Canadian industry and government said the Prime Minister has also mostly left them in the dark, just a day before the deal is set to be closed.

These are major red flags, warning all of us that the hoisting of the white flag is imminent.

Sadly, the Carney government seems to be in the grips of a massive, naive delusion: that a deal, no matter how bad, will pave the way to CUSMA renegotiations.

More important, the Carney government sees the proposed deal on the table as securing a “pathway” or agreement by the Trump administration to engage in a renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and acknowledgment that CUSMA is in the economic interest of all three parties, weeks after Trump said his country didn’t need CUSMA and might do only side deals.

Additionally, the emerging media narrative is that imposing the new 50% tariffs on a raft of Canadian products (many of which are CUSMA compliant), is a certainty without a 'deal', despite the fact that the authorizing authority for them (the Smoot-Harwley Tariff Act) is a questionable one that could be fought via complaint mechanisms. Many 'authorities' have warned of the dire consequences of walking away from these negotiations.

“If we do decide to keep fighting, it’s because ultimately the deal wasn’t good for Canada,” said the official, “but the truth of the matter is, (Kinew) is not saying how he would deal with the 56,000 jobs and the $28 billion worth of goods that would have been impacted.”

The official added “part of the realistic world” the Carney government is looking at is that the latest tariffs would hit five per cent of trade now “and if we lose CUSMA entirely, it’s 85 per cent of trade” that could be affected.

This amputation of elbows up will lead to nothing good. The lack of shared details from the Canadian side is telling, in that they do not want us to know other aspects of the deal until it has been finalized.These details apparently include, in addition to restocking our shelves with their alcohol, U.S. demands that

Buy Canadian procurement programs [be terminated]; that Ottawa lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos; and that the system for allocating licences under dairy supply management be changed.

Washington also demanded that Ottawa complete its purchase of F-35 fighter jets from American defence contractor Lockheed Martin; buy American military hardware as part of joining the Golden Dome missile defence system; grant the U.S. right of first refusal in buying critical minerals from Canada; and increase the country’s oil exports to the U.S.

Essentially, the above seems to mean that the Americans will be given almost exclusive access to our critical minerals,

So what do we get in return? Lower tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, but those lower rates will not help the car industry.

 Lana Payne, the head of Canada’s largest private-sector union, criticized the idea of agreeing to exempt only U.S. content from Mr. Trump’s tariffs and not auto parts made in Canada and Mexico.

“Agreeing to the U.S. auto carveout is very concerning as it will impact what we build in Canada and our competitiveness,” said Ms. Payne, president of Unifor, which represents 40,000 Canadian auto industry workers. “My concern is also how this carveout is viewed when we get to the CUSMA table and is seen as a precedent for those talks undermining jobs in this country.”

Oh, and the other thing we get is America's ongoing contempt for us and our weakness. 

At a private fundraiser in Southampton, N.Y. this week, Mr. Vance described Mr. Carney as a “very sweet guy,” but mocked his efforts to get a better deal from Mr. Trump.

Mr. Carney “comes in and puffs his chest out and says, ‘I’m going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump,’ ” Mr. Vance said in a recording of the speech obtained by The Canadian Press. “It’s hilarious because Carney presents this as some victory for Canada when fundamentally, like, they climb down on a lot of issues.”

Canadians are not mushrooms to be kept in the dark. Perhaps when the light finally emerges, the best political epitaph for Mark Carney and his array of appeasers is this one: "They promised much but delivered almost nothing. "

 

 

 

UPDATED: It Doesn't Sound Good

 

Given the scarcity of information surrounding the putative trade deal between Canada and the U.S., I can only rely on my gut in this post. From what I have read, it sounds to me like Canada has folded once more rather than confront the U.S. and its trade aggression against our country. The Globe and Mail reports Dominic LeBlanc as saying that Canada 

protected supply management, but he didn’t respond when asked about the result of negotiations to lower sectoral tariffs levelled under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

American trade envoy Jamieson Greer,  

said on social media that the deal includes “market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment.”

I smell capitulation here. In any event, if the deal is as bad of a sellout as I suspect it is, clearly our negotiating team cares not a whit for Canadian public opinion, which has expressed real vehemence against a bad deal. Here are some letters from The Star that express that view. 

Canada needs to stop trying to appease Trump and finally call his bluff on tariffs, Aug. 15

Thank you to Star business columnist David Olive.

It’s about time someone spelled it out in plain language: Canada should not be looking to make a deal. President Donald Trump is in trouble, and all we need to do is wait him out.

It has been clear from the beginning that Trump’s tariffs hurt the American consumer. The numbers David Olives quote clearly reflect Canada’s superior economic performance on many fronts, — our lower inflation, better job creation, stock market performance and foreign investment.

It’s time Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc takes notice of public sentiment. Either the Americans stand down or we stand up and walk away. Let Trump and his minions look elsewhere for a solution to the disaster of their making.

The Canadian public needs a show of strength and resolve.

We don’t need more concessions.

Enough is enough.

Phil Warne, Pickering

It’s time for Carney and Co. to put a stop to the bullying

The U.S. is putting pressure on Canada with tariff threats. It puts a great deal of pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney.

However, our prime minister cannot put pressure on ordinary Canadians and he must not force us to buy American products.

It’s down to Canadian customers. So let’s join together and tell Trump and his like to take a hike and show them what civilized refusal to bullying looks likes.

Ajit Zacharias, Newcastle, Ont.

Canada must stop making concessions because now it’s expected by Trump

David Olive makes the useful observation Canada has more leverage than it has so far chosen to exercise.

The deeper problem is habitual. For years, the Canadian approach has resembled a man who keeps feeding the same raccoon ever-larger sandwiches in the hope it will eventually develop manners and leave the porch.

When one side makes clear that almost any concession is preferable to friction, the other has every incentive to keep raising the price. Unused leverage decays quickly. At some point, the polite posture is clearly a nervous tic.

David Woodard, Tampere, Finland

Why shouldn’t Canada push back on U.S. tariffs? What have we got to lose?

Why have we not heard from our federal government regarding the inclusion of an export tax on critical items the United States needs? Potash, electricity, aluminum, B.C. soft lumber, critical minerals come to mind.

We have seen conciliatory moves have only been viewed by the U.S. as weakness.

It has appeared, since the first tariffs were imposed upon Canada, our government has been in a reactive stance as opposed to taking the initiative and using all of our tools available to meet the U.S. as an equal at any negotiating table.

If they squeeze us, then we should be squeezing back.

And as a shoutout to support our Canadian journalists, our government needs to bring back the Digital Services Tax.

Eric Edelsward, Mississauga

As they say, more to come, but if our negotiators have sold us out, I would not be voting for the Liberals in any of the three upcoming by elections if I lived in one of those ridings. Our 'leaders' should be aware that there is more than one way for people to express their strongly-held views.

UPDATE: This sounds like a big ask of the provinces:

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked provinces to restock American alcohol on their shelves as Canada finalizes a trade deal with the U.S. 

From the information I have been able to glean from the media, softwood lumber tariff reductions seem unlikely. If that is the case, I don't see how B.C. Premier David Eby could acquiesce in the restocking of American alcohol and have any political credibility left. 

UPDATED: Keep Calm And Carry On

That's the advice of Justin Ling as as the deadline for Trump's new set of punitive tariffs fast approaches, and that strikes me as eminently wise, for any number of reasons:

The Americans are apparently still demanding we join Trump’s half-baked Golden Dome missile defence system, ditch our made-in-Canada procurement rules and get back to the business of buying almost exclusively American military hardware. Each should be a firm red line for us.

[W]ere the prime minister to brief the public about where things are at, I think he would find that most Canadians are ready to say: no deal.

Stubborn and prideful though it may be, it’s the right move. We are just three months from the U.S. midterm elections, which Trump has, thus far, failed to rig in his favour. If the Democrats can regain control of Congress, it will put Trump’s ability to levy tariffs in considerable doubt.

As well, we know, along with the rest of the world, that Trump's signature on a deal means nothing.

... Trump uses tariffs as a means of extortion — and after he’s successfully extorted his victims, we know he keeps the tariffs in place anyway.

Indeed, even the right-wing press is taking a hard line on these 'negotiations'. The National Post's Kelly McParland writes that talks with Trump are pointless.

Whatever the temporary pain, Canada would be far better off in the long run avoiding any sort of agreement that lets Washington claim the slightest victory in its attempt to bully concessions out of Ottawa.

Better to walk away, let the White House do its worst and deal with the consequences. That will inevitably be the result under this administration in any case.

If the reports are true, Washington is essentially demanding a surrender of our sovereignty:

special rights to Canadian minerals, required purchases of U.S. technologies, guaranteed access to Canadian resources, all of which represent a surrender of Canada’s right to do as it pleases with its assets.

Now’s as good a time as any to inform Washington Canada is uninterested in further pointless discussions, and let ordinary Americans get back to bearing the brunt of their president’s expensive obsession.

As I have written before on this blog, the national mood is one of defiance and anger, as well it should be. Mark Carney's government will also soon be facing three byelections, events that should give him pause if he is tempted to continue down the path of appeasement that has yielded nothing but more outrageous demands from Trump.  

Sometimes, the voice of the people demands to be heard and heeded.

UPDATE: And on the topic of the voice of the people, here's one that speaks for me:

Enough capitulation. The time is now to stand up to Trump

A clear message for Carney: Canadians will not tolerate any more concessions to Trump, Aug. 14

I am fed up with Prime Minister Mark Carney knuckling under to U.S. demands.

Enough is enough.

Now he’s telling Canadians to prepare to put U.S. liquor back on the shelves. No more. If Trump continues with his nonsense, then let’s play our ‘trump’ cards: electricity, steel, aluminum, fertilizer, lumber and oil. The U.S. is in dire need of all our resources, whether they want to admit it or not.

We need to get all the key players together who represent these resources and come up with a game plan.

Regardless of what Trump says, the American president is under pressure from major industries to keep CUSMA in place.

Premiers, put your money where your mouth is and stand up to Trump.

Larry Snow, Oakville

 

 

The Tide Is Turning

 

Throughout these past many months, I have been a frequent critic of Mark Carney's policy of appeasement toward the Americans. Concession after concession, as I have written in this blog, has yielded nothing but a demand for more, each servile submission being met only with contempt and no reduction of tariffs from the likes of U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greet. "Why would we reward the withdrawal of policies that should never have been implemented in the first place?" he has said.

Baffling to me have been the almost uniform expressions of faith in Carney, at least to judge by readers' comments in newspapers and in blogs. ("He knows what he's doing." "He's playing 4 D Chess with Trump." "Poilievre certainly couldn't do a better job.")

Now however, it would seem that Canadians are waking up after a long, complacent slumber, and that fact is not going unnoticed by Canada's negotiating team. At least I hope so. More about that in a moment.

First, the latest reports suggest U,S. demands that would challenge our very notion of sovereignty, including the following:

The U.S. is demanding a right of first refusal on Canadian critical minerals, that Canada complete its purchase of U.S. F-35 fighter jets, that Ottawa buy U.S. tech such as radar planes as part of joining Mr. Trump’s planned Golden Dome missile defence system, and that Washington receive some guarantee on future supplies of oil and gas, one Canadian and one U.S. source said.

The deal under discussion would see Mr. Trump lower – but not fully get rid of – his tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and forest products, as well as refrain from hitting more products with tariffs on Aug. 19.

In exchange, Canada would eliminate its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos, agree to Washington’s interpretation of how dairy quotas should be allocated, and have provincial governments stop their Buy Canadian programs and boycotts of American alcohol, among other things.

As well, Greer has said that any retaliation on the part of Canada should talks fail will not be tolerated. 

All Canadians should be outraged by this contemptuous assault on our sovereignty, and their anger will not be limited to the U.S. if Carney caves to those demands. Andrew Phillips writes:

The public mood is shifting — and it’s shifting in ways that will make it even more difficult to get a deal.

Concessions a dirty word

Canadians are in no mood to make more compromises. They don’t want to keep giving up ground while getting nothing in return and facing the threat of yet more punishment down the road. “Concessions” has become a dirty word. There’s a stand-and-fight feeling across the land.

That will make it very tough for the Carney government to agree to anything that doesn’t include clear wins for Canada — an unlikely prospect when it comes with dealing with Trump & Co.

Phillips says that the goodwill and benefits of a doubt extended to Carney are reaching the end.

 Instead of Carney leading public opinion, his government is finding that public opinion is running ahead. If the Liberals think Canadians will accept the prime minister’s explanations for even more concessions, that it will be “trust Mark” once again, they’ll be taking a very high-risk bet.

The clearest evidence comes in the same polls that show Carney’s approval ratings still defying gravity. An Angus Reid survey shows only a bare seven per cent of Canadians willing to support concessions to head off more tariffs. Two-thirds support counter-tariffs — punching back, in other words. 

 The pundits are joining in as well. I can hardly count the number of columns I’ve read in the last couple of weeks urging the government to stand firm. One that stands out for its sheer vehemence is by Jen Gerson in The Line, under the headline “If Carney signs this deal, let’s be clear: it’s the beginning of our surrender.”

Gerson says it looks like Carney “is losing his nerve.” The deal his government is about to sign will be another cave-in to Trump that won’t be worth a thing. And “there is no better time to fight than right now.”

Earlier, Canadian negotiators warned Greer that they were reaching a cliff, and that the imposition of new tariffs next week will end trade talks. While this might only be a negotiating ploy, I hope they mean it.

We've been battered by the barbarians in Washington for long enough. National pride and sovereignty demand an end to our shameful efforts at appeasement. And although the "men in suits", i.e., our business 'betters' will likely condescend and tell us that anger is natural but not productive, it is time for that anger to be recognized as the legitimate expression of real Canadians, Canadians who are finally saying, "No more!"