Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Things Are Bad

But they are going to get much, much worse.
The first study to integrate all prior scientific research in order to project approximately when climate change will produce permanent catastrophic consequences has been accepted and will soon be published in the scientific journal Nature, and it finds that things will start going haywire in the tropics at around the year 2020, and in our part of the world at around 2047.

Nature shares with Science and PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) the distinction of being tied as the world’s three most prestigious scientific journals, and an article is not published in these journals unless it has undergone extremely rigorous scientific peer-revue; so, climate-change deniers will have no professional credibility in attacking this study, as the Koch brothers and their friends can reasonably be expected to do, since they profit so much from what causes global warming - the burning of carbon-based fuels.

According to this study, the tropics, which are the near-equatorial region of this planet that’s almost 100% impoverished, and that has thus contributed virtually nothing to global warming, will begin the period of permanent catastrophe starting in approximately 2020; but the (cooler) moderate-latitude countries, such as in North America and Europe, will begin this catastrophic period in or around 2047.
As if things weren't already bad enough. Consider the plight of the Great Barrier Reef:

Corals, which are animals, have a symbiotic relationship with algae that give them their colour and help provide them with food. During stressful conditions such as heat waves, the algae disappear from the corals, leading to coral bleaching. If the stressful conditions last more than eight weeks, the corals can die of starvation.
Meanwhile, on our own continent, scenes like the following are becoming increasingly, distressingly common:

Clearly, the days of willful ignorance, selfishness and heedlessness are now exacting a massive price.


  1. Thanks for the link, Lorne. I was able to read the 5-page summary of the report and it corroborates earlier studies that reached the same conclusion.

    This concept of "climate departure" is completely alien to our economic and political apparatus. Beginning in 2020 the first nations will enter a new climate in which every year thereafter will be hotter than any recorded year previously. Every year, year upon year, will be hotter than the hottest of the previous endured.

    The Caribbean nations are in the first tranche, the 2020 club, from a previous study I read. This one seems to confirm that. What are they to do? There is speculation that their lands will be rendered less habitable from the heat, precipitation changes and severe storm events, and the possible devastation of agriculture. Tourism will suffer and, as this report notes, they'll have to cope with virulent diseases and pests.

    Our leaders have avoided any suggestion that we "pressure test" our societies to determine their resilience and ability to cope with climate departure. For a lot of reasons, some of them understandable, they don't want to have this conversation.

    So what do we do when the people of the tropics decide that they have to migrate out of that zone. There's a map here that illustrates the problem:http://www.tropicalfoodies.com/tropical-countries-where/

    You'll see that there's virtually no place in the southern hemisphere for refuge. That means the escape route for most of these people, beginning in 2020 and in the two decades thereafter, will have to be north - especially into North America and Europe. By the time the great migration really takes hold, those regions will be starting to cope with their own problems and they won't be as capable of absorbing newcomers.

    By pure coincidence there was a report today out of Winnipeg on the prospect of megadrought and persistent heatwave/drought conditions on the prairie provinces.

    1. I checked out the link, Mound. Clearly, massive political and migratory upheaval, not to mention widescale food disruption, awaits all of us. Someone writing a dystopian novel could not have provided a grimmer scenario.

  2. .. outstanding info & links .. In my view, after the 10 year assault under the Harper Government, winkie Peter Kent, Panama Joe Oliver, the idiot Keith Ashfield + Gail Shea.. and the late saint Jim Flaherty et al Inc.. Canada should be trying to make amends by becoming the world leaders in climate understanding, water preservation, species & habitat protection, forestr regrwth strategy, permafrost & peat bog understanding, ocean & marine science & biology.. and I could come up with a dozen other related fields..

    Its a political sickness .. plague .. for Canada to instead foster domestic resource extraction and be the Liberia of foreign mining registration..

    There is no excuse, nor is there any valid explanation for this complete failure at the level of our elected and unelected public servants.. Every single day I wake up.. and become extremely agitated at the complete failure.. and the disaster unfolding on this planet.. fer gawds sake, is it up to Canadian Indy bloggers to school our mainstream media.. our political jackals.. our elected public servants re the reality of life on this planet.. and especially re what is likely the 'Last Redoubt' aka Canada eh !

    1. I don't know what it would take to change things, Salamander. I think the mainstream media, public servants etc. are well-aware of the real story, but for corporate and neoliberal reasons, will not address them.