Not Exactly As Advertised

Despite all of Doug Ford's bluster and lies about how important the Greenbelt is to meet his goal of building 1.5 million new homes in the next 10 years, the reality of real estate in Ontario, indeed, in Canada as a whole, offers a quite different picture.

So far this year, there were 44,000 housing starts in the first and second quarters, slightly above 40,100 during the same period last year.

Still, those numbers are far behind the province’s 150,000 yearly target to reach 1.5 million new homes in a decade. And while the first half of 2023 is above 2022 levels, experts warn the rest of the year will take a hit with construction on new projects declining as the industry faces an acute labour shortage and high interest rates.

This undoubtedly comes as an inconvenient truth for Mr. Ford and his cabal, given how much emphasis they have placed on the necessity of stealing from the Greenbelt to meet their goals. 

Last month, a Desjardins report noted that in the second half of 2023, there will be a more significant slowdown in new starts as the construction industry faces acute labour shortages, mixed with high borrowing and material costs and expectations of softening economic activity — deterring developers and investors.

And in terms of affordability, forget about it. According to Marc Desormeaux, the principal economist at Desjardins,

“[t]he so-called ‘missing middle’ remains largely absent from new home construction,” he said, referring to multi-unit homes such as duplexes, midrise apartments and purpose-built rentals, which offer more affordable options than single-family homes.

There are ways around these obstacles, as recommended last year by the province's own task force on housing affordability. Those recommendations, however,  run counter to Ford's obligations to enrich his developer puppet-masters. Included in the solutions were

densification in urban centres by building more mid- to highrise buildings, transforming single-family homes into multiple units, and building more transit-oriented communities.

Most interesting, from my perspective, is what Professor Mike Moffatt observes:

Importantly, he said, the report noted there is enough land to build on to meet these targets and that environmentally sensitive areas must be protected.

“Building on the Greenbelt goes against his government’s own recommendations to achieve the 1.5 million target,” he said. “There are many other ways to build the housing we need, we have enough land to do it.”

The Ford oligarchs have shown no intention of backing down on their plans to pillage the Greenbelt, despite the report's conclusions.

But then again, the people of Ontario have shown no sign of backing down on their fierce, spirited opposition to the theft.

We will see who wins this battle.