A Change Is Needed

As the dog days of summer wind down, there are many pleasures to look forward to as autumn beckons - fall fairs (if you like that sort of thing), cooler temperatures, a return to the halls of learning for many, the sense of new beginnings for many, and conversely, a resumption of familiar routines for others. 

What won't be happening anytime soon is the return of the Ontario legislature, now on a protracted holiday until the end of October, essentially a five-month hiatus - a hiatus that has provided the Ford team freedom from the opposition's relentless questions, questions that highlight its egregious corruption and ineptitude.  

And that fact tells you a great deal about Doug Ford's government. Content to regularly don his Captain Canada uniform, the premier undoubtedly hopes that the province will be awed by his superpower of getting under Donald Trump's skin; consequently, they will not notice he and his government are acting in an authoritarian, undemocratic manner, much like his putative foe, representing a myriad of interests that do nothing to help address the needs of the average citizen. I have written about this previously.

Today will see voting in three byelections. Will Ford's patriotic persona carry the day? People need to remember a few things before casting their ballots.

There is, for example, his unhealthy interest in Toronto. Not only did he unilaterally impose a much smaller council on that city, he is now in the process of  dismantling bike lanes on several key routes in the city, routes that had been decided upon some years ago by local government. And while it is true that municipalities are a creature of the province, most premiers do not act as super-mayors in thwarting local democracy.

In the City of Hamilton, Ford recently, through the Ontario Land Tribunal, expanded its boundary by 1300 hectares,  a move that benefits only one class of citizen - land developers. Many also see this as a stealth-move to circumvent his thwarted Greenbelt expansion:

In 2022, the provincial government ordered Hamilton to expand its urban boundary by 2,200 hectares. It also released plans to remove 7,400 acres in 15 different areas from the province's Greenbelt, including in Hamilton.

Reports from the auditor general and integrity commissioner found that the process to select lands was rushed and favoured certain developers.

Premier Doug Ford reversed course on both matters after heated public outcry. The RCMP continues to investigate the Greenbelt matter.

Then there are the countless ads from the Ontario government, propaganda paid for by its taxpayers, telling us all the great things the province is doing to protect us. Their 'accomplishments' range from more police, stricter bail, a back-to-basics school curriculum to, best of all, no tax increases! Surely we shouldn't begrudge the costs involved. 

But if we care to ask, what is the true cost of no new taxes? Well, homeowners will know that they are paying ever-increasing property taxes to deal with problems that should be the purview of upper levels of government, homelessness being the most obvious and pressing problem. 

Then there are the problems evident in healthcare: many without family doctors, long wait times for various surgeries, shortages of nurses and doctors, etc. 

In education, the erosion of the grant system for post-secondary education is causing many to consider forgoing it.

In public education, a myriad of problems from classroom sizes, a dearth of educational assistants to meet the needs of a diversity of students, and contract issues are evident.

Doug Ford, however, likes to gloss over those problems with big, big ideas, like single-sourced developments on the Toronto waterfront, the closing of the very popular Science Centre, creating tunnels to relieve highway congestion on the 401, etc.

It has been said a sucker is born every minute. Clearly, it is to that demographic Ford and his allies are playing. Let's hope that few of them turn out for today's byelections.

A Word From A Familiar Voice

Those of you who are long-time readers of blogs will remember The Mound of Sound. The Mound wrote prodigiously and deeply, offering keen analyses of world and national issues. The Mound retired his blog some years back, but I was delighted to hear from him in. a recent comment on my blog.

In case you missed it, here are the Mound's thoughts on the current American political system:

To change the subject ever so slightly I've been trying to make sense of the Democrats' glee over the upcoming mid-terms. It strikes me that their "wildest dreams" outcome will ensure almost nothing that the United States so urgently needs as time runs out. I sent the following missive to 3 American friends urging them to really ponder what's at stake.

I keep returning to America's system of checks & balances as the key to restoring democracy to the United States.

Frankly, no matter what happens in the November mid-term elections, if you cannot or will not rehabilitate the notion of 3 co-equal branches of government, America is screwed.

This has been building for almost half a century. Trump took a constitutionally enfeebled government and crushed the remnants of democracy in America.


Understand this. The notion of 3, co-equal branches of government - the legislature, the judiciary and the executive (the presidency) - was not some sort of afterthought.

These are embodied in the first 3 articles of the US Constitution, Thomas Jefferson's Constitution. They're not amendments to be squabbled over. They are the heart and soul of America's constitutional firmament. Without them you eventually wind up with thugs like Donald Trump and he won't be the last.

The legislative branch is working against you. The judiciary is working against you. The presidency is working against you. So there, what are you going to do about it?

Your kids' future has already been indentured. A $40 trillion and growing federal debt will see to that.

Even the RAND Corporation ran the numbers and concluded that in the half century since the Reagan era, 79 trillion dollars of wealth has been siphoned out of your pocket - whether you're blue or white collar - and into the pockets of today's oligarchs - Musk, Bezos, Theil etc., etc.

Nobel laureate economist Joe Stiglitz has shown that today's worsening inequality is neither merit nor market-based. It is almost entirely a legislated outcome by politicians who work not for the country, not for the American people, but for America's emerging oligarchy.
Study after study confirm that America is no longer a democracy, a democratic republic. It's now downgraded to an electoral oligarchy. You still get to vote - for now - but that vote carries increasingly less political clout. American democracy now has a shelf-life measured in days.
Now they're getting bolder. They're putting the military out onto American streets. They've created a secret police that spirits people, some of them American citizens, away to hell hole prisons in Central America.

This all comes back to those first three articles of the Constitution of the United States of America. The same fellow who wrote that Constitution warned you this day would come. It has. It's here.

 

Grampa Had Another Episode

While I find myself repeatedly incredulous over the ongoing Looney Toons Show running in the White House, I see this latest episode as transitioning into absolute absurdity. And what is even more absurd is the fact that this kind of madness is greeted with seriousness by the press. No one is willing to say that Gramps has had yet another episode in his descent into full-blown dementia.

However, Canadian exemplar Charlie Angus has quite another take on it, underscoring its sinister implications. See what you think.

UPDATED:And Now, For Something Completely Different

Well, actually it's not, but given the rising levels of absurdity currently circulating, I couldn't help but think of Monty Python. Here in Ontario we have Doug Ford (a faux Captain Canada, the real one residing in the office of the Manitoba premier) inviting Trump to do an osculatory exploration of his posterior, an image none of us of sound mind really want to contemplate.

Taunting rhetoric aside, my friend Cam sent me the following, which I think does justice to the times we are now living through: an acerbic assessment of Trump and his coterie by Jonathan Pie:

Oh, and another thing I just received from Cam. The English teacher in me says this is a very special lady who would have been a great teacher of those not able to be placed in mainstream classes, i.e., Trump's MAGATS;

UPDATE: Amen

Vassal Statehood Averted

A vassal state is a nation that, while often appearing to be independent, has its sovereignty and decision-making powers significantly constrained and dictated by a more powerful state. Its ability to act autonomously, particularly in areas like foreign policy, defense, or economic affairs, is limited to what the dominant power permits or grants.

I woke up yesterday morning with the news that the trade deal Canada had been negotiating with the U.S. was off. I was massively relieved, finally finding a peace of mind that had eluded me for days. Subsequently, I followed the media throughout the day.

Watching TV and reading online papers, it became clear that the Trump administration made last-minute demands that would have been complete folly to acquiesce in. The deal Canada was prepared to sign was bad enough.

As my previous post indicated, I had a very bad feeling about the deal that was close to being signed. Apparently, it included all the things I had written about, with one inaccuracy. In yesterday's strong, statesman-like address,  Prime Minister Carney answered a large number of press questions, one of which led me to stand corrected: my assertion that the very bad deal they were about to sign gave the Americans almost exclusive access to our critical minerals. Taking Carney at his word, he said that wasn't true, that he would never have gone for that.

So what saved us from that deal and led to this retaliatory trade war in which Canada can hold its head high? Apparently, Howard Lutnick suddenly appeared, making the demands that led to Canada walking out. We owe that malign influence a huge debt of gratitude, as Adam Radwanski writies:

[Lutnick] did Canada a service by reminding Mark Carney and his negotiators who they were dealing with — and saving us from a bad deal that probably would’ve only looked worse down the road.

The deal narrowly averted appears to have essentially ensconced in perpetuity tariffs on a myriad of our goods, Had it been signed, it would have been a slippery slope to the bottom.

Trump appeared to have successfully moved the goalposts with his threat of new 50 per cent tariffs on a range of products, leaving Canada so determined to avoid those that it was willing to live with less relief from his existing tariffs than it had previously demanded. Modest cuts to the levies on our automotive and steel exports, among others, would have locked in rates still too high for those industries to be viable in the long run.

Meanwhile, Canada would’ve had to give up what leverage it had, including both counter-tariffs and the provincial bans on U.S. booze that have gotten under Trump’s skin. Plus, we appeared poised to scrap Buy Canadian procurement policies, giving U.S. companies relatively unfettered access to government contracts here, even as Canadian access to the U.S. market remained restricted.

Apparently the pending deal was so bad that Ontario's Doug Ford called Carney on Wednesday urging him not to sign.

“I thought it was a terrible deal and I was very clear with the Prime Minister, once you make these deals they can last for years and years and go into decades.”

Campbell Clark provides additional details on what the foul triumvirate of Trump, Greer and Lutinick demanded at the last minute, clearly sensing Canada's weakness and therefore going for the kill. 

U.S. negotiators declared that the lower tariff rate on cars wouldn’t apply to Canadian trucks, he [Mr. Carney] said. They wanted language that would restrict Canada’s ability to strike new trade deals with other countries, he said. And they pushed for Canada to give up some protections for culture and the French language, he said, including labelling on products. 

That’s hardly the kind of package that Mr. Carney could sell back home. It would be insane to hand the trade bully more power to shake us down by allowing them to dictate the terms of Canada’s trade with other countries. It’s hard to imagine a more poisonous pill than making a deal with the U.S. that suggests the French language be taken off labels, especially when it is six weeks before a Quebec election.

Justin Ling says in the aftermath of this attempted  shakedown, things are much clearer for everyone.

We know now, with no ambiguity, that Trump does not want efficient supply chains, nor mutually beneficial co-operation.

Donald Trump believes he can fuel America’s economy by stealing his supposed allies’ industries. He is skulking around the parking lot, siphoning gas from empty cars. 

In walking away, we have preserved our ability to fight back and go elsewhere.

Even though there will be a hard economic toll from these tariffs and counter-tariffs, I believe Canada is in a much stronger position than it was on Friday. We have finally established that despite the series of unrequited concessions we gave up to this point, we have reached the breaking point, and, as Carney put it, anything the Americans sign is written in pencil.  

Oh, and one other thing. As the Prime Minister pointed out, 

“Canada fuels American growth, supplying 99 percent of their natural gas imports, 85 percent of their electricity imports, 60 percent of their crude oil imports,” Carney said. “I don’t think they want us to stop sending any of that energy.”

Not a bad trump card to keep in one's pocket, eh? 

 

 

A Bad Deal Is Better Than No Deal?

Honestly, I had resolved not to write another post about the pending surrender trade 'deal' between the U.S. and Canada until I knew the full dimensions of the capitulation. What prompts me now is the stunning revelation that, while Carney has asked (almost begged, according to Manitoba's Wab Kinew) the provinces to put American alcohol back on their shelves, said premiers know little about the deal.

Ottawa continued to keep most stakeholders and premiers in the dark on specific numbers, tariff rates, potential exemptions, and other Canadian concessions that are on the table.

Carney similarly withheld details from his caucus, one Liberal MP saying

that “minimal information” was shared, given the ongoing nature of the talks. 

The Globe and Mail reports that Carney

has not shared the proposed pact’s details with the public and six sources across Canadian industry and government said the Prime Minister has also mostly left them in the dark, just a day before the deal is set to be closed.

These are major red flags, warning all of us that the hoisting of the white flag is imminent.

Sadly, the Carney government seems to be in the grips of a massive, naive delusion: that a deal, no matter how bad, will pave the way to CUSMA renegotiations.

More important, the Carney government sees the proposed deal on the table as securing a “pathway” or agreement by the Trump administration to engage in a renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), and acknowledgment that CUSMA is in the economic interest of all three parties, weeks after Trump said his country didn’t need CUSMA and might do only side deals.

Additionally, the emerging media narrative is that imposing the new 50% tariffs on a raft of Canadian products (many of which are CUSMA compliant), is a certainty without a 'deal', despite the fact that the authorizing authority for them (the Smoot-Harwley Tariff Act) is a questionable one that could be fought via complaint mechanisms. Many 'authorities' have warned of the dire consequences of walking away from these negotiations.

“If we do decide to keep fighting, it’s because ultimately the deal wasn’t good for Canada,” said the official, “but the truth of the matter is, (Kinew) is not saying how he would deal with the 56,000 jobs and the $28 billion worth of goods that would have been impacted.”

The official added “part of the realistic world” the Carney government is looking at is that the latest tariffs would hit five per cent of trade now “and if we lose CUSMA entirely, it’s 85 per cent of trade” that could be affected.

This amputation of elbows up will lead to nothing good. The lack of shared details from the Canadian side is telling, in that they do not want us to know other aspects of the deal until it has been finalized.These details apparently include, in addition to restocking our shelves with their alcohol, U.S. demands that

Buy Canadian procurement programs [be terminated]; that Ottawa lift retaliatory tariffs on U.S. autos; and that the system for allocating licences under dairy supply management be changed.

Washington also demanded that Ottawa complete its purchase of F-35 fighter jets from American defence contractor Lockheed Martin; buy American military hardware as part of joining the Golden Dome missile defence system; grant the U.S. right of first refusal in buying critical minerals from Canada; and increase the country’s oil exports to the U.S.

Essentially, the above seems to mean that the Americans will be given almost exclusive access to our critical minerals,

So what do we get in return? Lower tariffs on aluminum, steel and autos, but those lower rates will not help the car industry.

 Lana Payne, the head of Canada’s largest private-sector union, criticized the idea of agreeing to exempt only U.S. content from Mr. Trump’s tariffs and not auto parts made in Canada and Mexico.

“Agreeing to the U.S. auto carveout is very concerning as it will impact what we build in Canada and our competitiveness,” said Ms. Payne, president of Unifor, which represents 40,000 Canadian auto industry workers. “My concern is also how this carveout is viewed when we get to the CUSMA table and is seen as a precedent for those talks undermining jobs in this country.”

Oh, and the other thing we get is America's ongoing contempt for us and our weakness. 

At a private fundraiser in Southampton, N.Y. this week, Mr. Vance described Mr. Carney as a “very sweet guy,” but mocked his efforts to get a better deal from Mr. Trump.

Mr. Carney “comes in and puffs his chest out and says, ‘I’m going to, like, out-tough Donald Trump,’ ” Mr. Vance said in a recording of the speech obtained by The Canadian Press. “It’s hilarious because Carney presents this as some victory for Canada when fundamentally, like, they climb down on a lot of issues.”

Canadians are not mushrooms to be kept in the dark. Perhaps when the light finally emerges, the best political epitaph for Mark Carney and his array of appeasers is this one: "They promised much but delivered almost nothing. "

 

 

 

UPDATED: It Doesn't Sound Good

 

Given the scarcity of information surrounding the putative trade deal between Canada and the U.S., I can only rely on my gut in this post. From what I have read, it sounds to me like Canada has folded once more rather than confront the U.S. and its trade aggression against our country. The Globe and Mail reports Dominic LeBlanc as saying that Canada 

protected supply management, but he didn’t respond when asked about the result of negotiations to lower sectoral tariffs levelled under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

American trade envoy Jamieson Greer,  

said on social media that the deal includes “market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment.”

I smell capitulation here. In any event, if the deal is as bad of a sellout as I suspect it is, clearly our negotiating team cares not a whit for Canadian public opinion, which has expressed real vehemence against a bad deal. Here are some letters from The Star that express that view. 

Canada needs to stop trying to appease Trump and finally call his bluff on tariffs, Aug. 15

Thank you to Star business columnist David Olive.

It’s about time someone spelled it out in plain language: Canada should not be looking to make a deal. President Donald Trump is in trouble, and all we need to do is wait him out.

It has been clear from the beginning that Trump’s tariffs hurt the American consumer. The numbers David Olives quote clearly reflect Canada’s superior economic performance on many fronts, — our lower inflation, better job creation, stock market performance and foreign investment.

It’s time Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc takes notice of public sentiment. Either the Americans stand down or we stand up and walk away. Let Trump and his minions look elsewhere for a solution to the disaster of their making.

The Canadian public needs a show of strength and resolve.

We don’t need more concessions.

Enough is enough.

Phil Warne, Pickering

It’s time for Carney and Co. to put a stop to the bullying

The U.S. is putting pressure on Canada with tariff threats. It puts a great deal of pressure on Prime Minister Mark Carney.

However, our prime minister cannot put pressure on ordinary Canadians and he must not force us to buy American products.

It’s down to Canadian customers. So let’s join together and tell Trump and his like to take a hike and show them what civilized refusal to bullying looks likes.

Ajit Zacharias, Newcastle, Ont.

Canada must stop making concessions because now it’s expected by Trump

David Olive makes the useful observation Canada has more leverage than it has so far chosen to exercise.

The deeper problem is habitual. For years, the Canadian approach has resembled a man who keeps feeding the same raccoon ever-larger sandwiches in the hope it will eventually develop manners and leave the porch.

When one side makes clear that almost any concession is preferable to friction, the other has every incentive to keep raising the price. Unused leverage decays quickly. At some point, the polite posture is clearly a nervous tic.

David Woodard, Tampere, Finland

Why shouldn’t Canada push back on U.S. tariffs? What have we got to lose?

Why have we not heard from our federal government regarding the inclusion of an export tax on critical items the United States needs? Potash, electricity, aluminum, B.C. soft lumber, critical minerals come to mind.

We have seen conciliatory moves have only been viewed by the U.S. as weakness.

It has appeared, since the first tariffs were imposed upon Canada, our government has been in a reactive stance as opposed to taking the initiative and using all of our tools available to meet the U.S. as an equal at any negotiating table.

If they squeeze us, then we should be squeezing back.

And as a shoutout to support our Canadian journalists, our government needs to bring back the Digital Services Tax.

Eric Edelsward, Mississauga

As they say, more to come, but if our negotiators have sold us out, I would not be voting for the Liberals in any of the three upcoming by elections if I lived in one of those ridings. Our 'leaders' should be aware that there is more than one way for people to express their strongly-held views.

UPDATE: This sounds like a big ask of the provinces:

Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked provinces to restock American alcohol on their shelves as Canada finalizes a trade deal with the U.S. 

From the information I have been able to glean from the media, softwood lumber tariff reductions seem unlikely. If that is the case, I don't see how B.C. Premier David Eby could acquiesce in the restocking of American alcohol and have any political credibility left.