A Stark Prediction of Sea Level Rise By 2040

Posted by MoS, the Disaffected Lib:

There have been a number of reports over the past year or two that, taken collectively, seem to point to major changes underway in the Arctic. It's not one thing but a number of changes that are synergistic, each building on the other. These include the rapidly warming Arctic atmosphere and the creation of the more powerful polar jet stream; the loss of Arctic sea ice at rates that were not contemplated even a few years ago; the warming of Arctic Ocean waters, sea level rise and the recent observation of big waves where before there were none; the thawing and burning of the tundra; the exposure and melting of the permafrost beneath; the major increase in wildfires in the northern boreal forests; the spread of black and brown soot from these wildfires and the resultant accelerating deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet.

We know that the polar jet stream is already playing havoc with us in the temperate zone. It manifests in Rossby waves - deep, slow-moving waves - that can alternately pull warm, southern air into the high northern latitudes and then send cold, Arctic air plunging far into the south. These waves can also leave severe storm events "parked" over certain locations leading to flash flooding of the sort seen in recent years.

What is beginning to emerge from recent observations is that we may have grossly underestimated sea level rise this century especially in the short- and mid-term. By one calculation, all these phenomena playing out today in the Arctic could lead to sea level rise of 2.5-metres by 2040.



I won't explore this forecast in detail. Follow the link, spend an hour or two, and you can come to your own conclusions. Whether 2.5-metres by 2040 is likely, I don't know. What I do know is that we should have very clear answers within 10-years at the outside. We will know by 2025 if this is in store for us by 2040. We might even know by 2020.

What this means is that, by 2020, we may know if we have crossed or are at the tipping point where natural feedback mechanisms, such as those listed above, have carried us into runaway global warming of some extent.

2.5-metres of sea level rise by 2040 wouldn't be the end of Canada or the end of the United States. It would be the end of various low-lying nations. For us, however, it would mean economic upheaval and major social dislocation. It would be an economic body blow. There are a lot of North Americans who live close enough to the sea that 2.5-metres of sea level rise, coupled with the impacts of storm surges, would necessitate retreat from the coast. There are some North American cities such as Miami or New Orleans that cannot survive that sort of rise and would have to be abandoned. The Jersey Shore? Fuggetaboutit.

NOAA has an interactive graphic depicting the impacts of sea level rise up to 2-metres on the United States. It stops at the Canadian border but you can roughly extrapolate from the U.S. picture.

John Oakley Hosts Harper Clone

Many thanks to The Salamander, who, in his response to a post from last evening, sent along this link to the John Oakley Show. On the show, the Reverend Charles McVetey, as unhinged and extreme an evangelical you are ever likely to encounter, explains the evangelical Christian validation for Stephen Harper's need to support Israel.

While the clip is long, even listening to five or ten minutes of it will offer great insight not only into the mentality of Dear Leader, but also the trait of absolutist thinking both he and people like McVeety share. And at about the 10-minute mark, listen how a caller's criticism of Israeli behaviour immediately earns an accusation of extreme anti-Semitism from McVeety.

It's Getting Worse, Fast, and We're Not Getting Ready

"It" refers to severe storm events of the type that flooded Toronto and Calgary in 2013 and that deluged Burlington just days ago. Environment Canada's senior climatologist David Phillips warns that governments need to plan for a lot more of these wild weather events.

"These [once in] 50-year floods are occurring every 10 years, because our climate has changed," he said.

Phillips added that planning for weather based on the past 100 years "masks" recent events that have dramatically changed how much rain falls. He said in the aftermath of the Toronto floods of August 2013, a look into the last 25 years of rainfall showed that there were three 100-year storms, and six 50-year storms.

Phillips said that in the past few decades, precipitation across Canada has increased 12 per cent, and the "predictable" storms of the past, which used to sweep across southern Ontario, have transformed into "little cells that affect a neighbourhood, a small area."

"It's like these are bull's-eyes," Phillips said. "The reality is that our infrastructure is aging, it's breaking down.… We need to take into consideration the new climate," Phillips said.

Canada is burdened with federal politicians who show no interest in preparing our nation for what's already here and what is yet to come. There's not one, save for Elizabeth May, even willing to have the conversation our government needs to have with the Canadian people. When it comes to this enormous threat looming over our heads, they're a pack of shirkers and shrinkers. Whether it's the Conservatives, the Liberals or the New Democrats in power, we're on our own and good luck with that.

MoS, the Disaffected Lib

Clearly, There Is No Depth The Harper Regime Won't Plumb

I believe this is ample testament to my heading.

Happily, many readers have seen through a cheap, demagogic ruse that once more demonstrates the unfitness of the Harper regime to hold public office:

Wow, Harper and his cronies really are getting scared. This is the best you can do huh?

It's obvious the Conservative's accusations are outrageous at best but I'll give them thanks for putting Justin Trudeau's name in the headlines while making themselves look like fools at the same time. :))

The Cons are out to lunch on this, they must be running scared. I was not sure if I was going to vote Liberal, but I am now.

More muck raking from the gutter party....The smell of fear emanating from the Conservatives is a like a breath of fresh air for the other %70 of Canadians.

A Glaring Contrast

It is refreshing to see that, unlike in Canada where government scientists cannot speak about climate change, American government employees are not afraid to draw some harsh correlations between it and environmental destruction.

Another F-35 Weakness Confirmed

It's hard to get an accurate critique of the F-35's shortcomings from its maker, Lockheed Martin, or from its key customer, the United States Air Force. They spare no effort to gloss over problems with this worrisome warplane but, bit by bit, information does emerge.

Aviation Week reports that the USAF, which is still years away from going operational with the F-35, is already looking to trim spending to free up money for the 35's replacement. Why? Well, there are plenty of reasons but the latest to emerge is the admission that Lockheed's stealth bomb truck is short where it matters - on its payload capacity.

[Air Combat Command chief, General Mike] Hostage acknowledges that the “magazine” for today’s fifth-generation fighters-—the F-22 and, eventually, the F-35—is shallow. Each can carry only a maximum of eight ground-attack Small-Diameter Bombs. Physics limits magazine options for these aircraft, as the stealthy design requires small internal weapons bays.

It sounds as though Lockheed's vaunted "Fifth Generation" F-35 might face an unexpectedly truncated lifespan. It's successor will be designed to field much more firepower and, presumably, the sort of counter-stealth technology the Russians and Chinese have under development.

MoS, the Disaffected Lib

Tar Sands Refinery Cries "Uncle" on Climate Change - Seeks Taxpayer Bailout

The Delaware City Refining Company doesn't just refine oil, it refines bitumen from the Tar Sands. The company, however, is intensely aware of the dangers of climate change, so much so in fact that it's seeking tax dollars to protect its refinery from "tidal encroachment" - another way of saying sea level rise.

The Delaware City Refinery is one of the first refineries to shift its crude oil supply to rail and is refining tar sands -- one of the most carbon-intensive fuels known to man.

To add insult to injury, the sea level rise preparations the Delaware City Refining Company is proposing could negatively affect the community by directing more storm surge toward the town of Delaware City, the small coastal community near where the refinery is located. But who could be surprised by an oil company with such a poor sense of irony acting with no regard for the people around it?

MoS, the Disaffected Lib