Sometimes I think that we have become so jaded with government in general that when an apparently new 'flavour' comes along, our reaction is disproportionately enthusiastic. You don't need me to tell you how in most quarters (excepting the Conservatives, of course), the fact that the Carney Liberal government has now achieved majority status is being hailed as the dawn of a new, stable era. While the latter may be true, one should bear in mind the old caution: be careful what you wish for.
The Carney government is, without a doubt, a very conservative one; its worldview seems to be one in which taxes are bad and the corporate ethos of almost limitless profits is not to be questioned. So in announcing the pending 10 cent reduction in the federal gasoline excise tax, he is providing but an ort from the table. It is one designed to satisfy the immediate demand for relief while ignoring underlying causes.
Seth Klein offers his advice on what Carney should have done. Observing the monstrous profits oil companies are deriving from soaring gas prices, he suggests now is the time to bring in a tax on their windfall profits.
The Financial Times reports that Canada’s oil producers are in line to land $90 billion in windfall profits due to the Iran war. According to modelling by the research firm Enverus, “Canadian companies will generate an extra $25-$30bn in revenue for every $10 rise in oil prices this year following the market turmoil caused by the conflict.”
Because the ripples of these increased fuel costs will ripple throughout the economy, it is time to derive a public good.
By not taxing these windfalls, much of the profits are leaving the country. Political economist Gordon Laxer notes, “oil corporations in Alberta and Canada are overwhelmingly foreign-owned,” mainly by Americans.
The windfall from spikes in the price of oil also overwhelmingly go to the wealthy, producing a hidden redistribution from lower-income households to the superrich. A study by University of Massachusetts Amherst economists Isabella Weber and Gregor Semieniuk found that the price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in the 2022 net income of publicly listed oil and gas companies reaching $916 billion globally, “a figure more than three times that of the preceding years (even excluding 2020).” Moreover, within the US, they found, “50 per cent of all fossil fuel profit claims accrued to the wealthiest 1 per cent of individuals. The bottom 50 per cent of the population … received 1 per cent.”
Their solution: “a permanent excess profit tax on oil and gas, defined as returns above a specified threshold.”
The obscene profits accruing to companies cry out for this tax, and it one that finds much favour among the general public.
Politically, a windfall profits tax is a winner. First, it is hugely popular; polling conducted two years ago found 62 per cent of Canadians support such a tax. Second, the climate movement would be thrilled. Third, a windfall profits tax on oil and gas could raise roughly $1 billion a year (or considerably more, depending on the rate and the price of oil).
[T]axing the oil and gas companies’ profits means we can deploy some of those revenues to directly help lower and modest-income households, while using some to expedite our transition off these deadly fuels.
There are compelling arguments to support a windfall tax on the oil giants. Unfortunately, because such a tax would benefit the people instead of corporate entities, I expect those arguments will fall on deaf Ottawa ears.